Focus Shifts to Capital Reallocation Away from AI: What Will Support Bitcoin？

Key points of this article

1.Bitcoin's soft market
In June 2026, the BTC market trended weak, weighed down by US rate-hike expectations, a shift of funds toward AI-related stocks, and sales by companies holding Bitcoin. Uncertainty is rising as the Fed signals it will scale back forward guidance, and the market faces a tough stretch where further downside risk stays in view depending on how economic indicators unfold.

2.Capital reallocation and supportive factors
While a market pullback remains a concern, a reallocation of investment funds that had grown lopsided could provide support. Cooling tensions in the Middle East bringing lower oil prices and easing inflation worries, along with progress on the US CLARITY Act and the entry of major financial institutions, are also expected to lend a sense of reassurance that helps keep prices stable.

3.The spread of stock tokens, and the challenges ahead
Stock tokens tied to popular names like SpaceX have begun rolling out, creating an environment for small-lot trading around the clock. Going forward, expanding this market will require issuers to ensure transparency around the assets backing these tokens, sufficient liquidity, and clarity around the rights involved.

I'm Marin Matsushima, cryptocurrency analyst at Monex Securities. This time again, I'll look back at the Bitcoin (BTC) market and share my outlook going forward.

June 2026 performance

The Bitcoin market trended weak in June 2026. US stocks held near highs on expectations for major AI-related IPOs, while in the crypto market, attention turned to investors setting aside capital for newly listed tokens.

On top of that, it emerged that Strategy, one of the world's largest corporate holders of Bitcoin, had sold off part of its holdings, which shook confidence in the company's commitment to holding long term and soured investor sentiment. Combined with outflows from spot ETFs and the liquidation of long futures positions, Bitcoin briefly fell to 9.6 million yen.

After that, there were moments of rebound, buoyed by reassuring developments: a strong start for SpaceX's IPO, lower oil prices following a US-Iran peace agreement, and additional purchases by Strategy.

However, even after the FOMC left the policy rate unchanged, comments from the new Fed chair stoked renewed expectations of a rate hike before year-end. As rising US rates triggered selling across risk assets broadly, Bitcoin again fell below 10 million yen.