Prediction markets are shifting from "markets that predict the future" to "markets that monitor power."

The debate surrounding prediction markets in the United States has entered a new phase. On April 30th, the U.S. Senate unanimously passed a resolution prohibiting senators and their staff from trading in prediction markets. The resolution was treated as an amendment to Senate rules and reportedly took effect immediately.

The market affected includes prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket, which allow trading based on the outcomes of future events in politics, economics, international affairs, and sports.

While this may appear to be a matter of exemplified ethics for lawmakers, in the context of Web3.0 and the cryptocurrency market, it could also be seen as a sign that prediction markets are beginning to be recognized not merely as gambling services, but as "information markets" connected to policy, war, diplomacy, elections, and financial markets.