The end of the "four-year cycle" and the stirrings of financial infrastructure: The deeper layers of the cryptocurrency market after its initial phase.

2026/05/09 10:00
Noriaki Yagi
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The end of the "four-year cycle" and the stirrings of financial infrastructure: The deeper layers of the cryptocurrency market after its initial phase.

The "four-year cycle" rule, which we have long believed in, and the rhythm of a three-year rise followed by a one-year decline starting from a halving event, were almost like a kind of faith in the cryptocurrency market. However, the era in which one could be rewarded by surrendering to that cycle is quietly coming to an end.

Hunter Horsley of Bitwise, a US-based cryptocurrency asset management company, has declared the end of the "four-year cycle" that has defined the cryptocurrency market. He describes the current market as the "end of the early stages," pointing to a transition to a new market structure where past patterns no longer apply.

Supporting this view, the actions of traditional financial institutions are accelerating. Morgan Stanley has launched spot trading of cryptocurrencies on its E*TRADE platform with a fee of 0.50% (50bps), significantly lower than existing exchanges.

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