Over the past week, Bitcoin (BTC) faced heavy upside resistance. While its USD-denominated price remained resilient, currency fluctuations and uncertainty surrounding US crypto policy continued to weigh on the market.
On July 30, a strengthening yen pushed the USD/JPY rate down into the 157 range, temporarily dragging down yen-denominated Bitcoin prices. Supported by gains in the USD price, yen-denominated BTC rebounded through the morning of July 31. However, selling pressure soon returned, briefly driving prices below the key psychological threshold of 10 million yen over the weekend.
Dampening market sentiment further is the standstill surrounding the US crypto market structure bill, the CLARITY Act. Although discussions over executive ethics rules have shown some progress, formal legislative procedures remain stalled, pushing its probability of passing this year on Polymarket below 30%. With the US Senate set to enter summer recess on August 7, expectations for significant progress before the break have faded.
Additionally, capital outflows from CME futures and an increase in bearish options positions have been confirmed. US AI and semiconductor stocks, which had previously anchored risk assets, are showing signs of a paused rally. A deeper correction in the equities market could spill over into selling pressure on Bitcoin.
For now, the market is expected to remain skittish and sensitive to the progress of the CLARITY Act, US equities, and derivatives capital flows, leaving little room for an aggressive upside chase.
