Bitcoin market review for October and future outlook: Trump's victory and renewed focus on halving anomaly

Hello, I’m Marin Matsushima, a.k.a. “Marin,” cryptocurrency analyst at Monex Securities. Once again, I’ll be sharing insights on Bitcoin's recent market trends and future prospects.

▶︎Percentage Change for October 2024

Bitcoin Market: October Recap

In October 2024, Bitcoin began on a strong note as Donald Trump gained a lead in prediction markets for the U.S. presidential election, reigniting hopes for a “Trump Rally.” However, escalating military tensions between Israel and Iran fostered a risk-off sentiment, capping Bitcoin’s upward momentum. Additionally, comments from U.S. officials and FOMC minutes dampened expectations of significant rate cuts, cooling the market.

Following fluctuations in China’s stock market after the Golden Week holiday, Bitcoin briefly dipped below ¥9 million. However, China’s announcement of large-scale economic stimulus policies triggered a strong rebound, fueled by expectations of liquidity inflows. The European Central Bank (ECB) also decided on back-to-back rate cuts, bolstering Bitcoin’s price amid global rate-cut trends. In the U.S., renewed inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs helped push the price up to around ¥10.2 million.

Future Outlook

Bitcoin's trajectory will likely depend on key events. A Trump victory in the U.S. presidential election combined with further rate cuts by the FOMC could accelerate upward momentum. If the Republican Party achieves a “Triple Red” (control of the presidency, Senate, and House), ease of policy implementation could further drive buying activity. In this scenario, the halving anomaly—historically associated with Bitcoin rallies—may regain focus towards year-end.

On the flip side, stronger-than-expected U.S. economic indicators, such as employment data, could reduce rate-cut expectations, applying pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin. Additionally, intensified tensions between Israel and Iran could introduce geopolitical risks, potentially hindering Bitcoin’s upward trajectory. While the $100,000 mark in USD remains a key psychological milestone, investors should remain cautious of sharp corrections following overbought conditions.

This time, I’d like to spotlight Dogecoin (DOGE), a well-known meme coin supported by Elon Musk. Represented by the Shiba Inu meme character "Doge," Dogecoin lacks the complex technological or economic underpinnings of Bitcoin or Ethereum. Instead, its value is sustained by a loyal and passionate community.

Dogecoin first gained attention in 2021, driven by Musk’s frequent endorsements via social media, which often caused significant price movements. Notably, during Musk's appearance on Saturday Night Live in May 2021, his comments on Dogecoin led to wild price swings. Recently, Dogecoin saw another surge after Trump hinted at establishing a "Department of Government Efficiency" (DOGE) if elected, further fueling speculation.

If Trump regains the presidency, Musk’s commentary on Dogecoin is likely to increase, potentially heightening its volatility. However, with the U.S. moving towards a more crypto-friendly stance, Dogecoin’s popularity could see a revival, presenting both opportunities and risks for investors.

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