Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Bearish Anomaly and Three Key Risk Factors (May.30, 2026 | Column)

Bitcoin traded lower throughout the week, maintaining a soft tone. Lacking clear catalysts for a rebound from the start of the week, the market was weighed down by geopolitical risks involving the U.S. and Iran, as well as concerns over U.S. ETF flows. Consequently, buying momentum remained limited even from mid-week onward.

This decline was driven by a confluence of negative factors. First, reignited tensions between the U.S. and Iran heightened caution regarding the situation in the Middle East, intensifying selling pressure on risk assets globally. As investor sentiment turned cautious in the equity markets, this risk-off mood naturally spilled over into the cryptocurrency market.

Furthermore, observed outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs added downward pressure on the market. In particular, reports of large-scale outflows from BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) sparked speculation that the institutional demand that had previously supported the market is now taking a breather. Compounding these concerns over deteriorating supply and demand, a massive wave of liquidations—primarily of long positions—hit the market mid-week, further accelerating the decline.

In addition, medium-term concerns continue to linger. In the U.S., the prospects for passing market structure legislation (regulatory clarity bills) remain uncertain, and this murky regulatory outlook continues to weigh on market sentiment. If hopes for legislative progress fade, uncertainties will persist regarding the growth trajectory of crypto-related businesses in the U.S. market.

Furthermore, the market is mindful of potential initial public offerings (IPOs) from major tech firms such as SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, expected from June onward. Because these blockbuster listings have the potential to absorb substantial investment capital, there is a possibility that, in the medium term, a portion of risk capital could be diverted from the crypto market toward these alternative growth sectors, such as AI and space exploration. However, rather than acting as a direct catalyst for the current drop in BTC prices, it is more accurate to view these anticipated IPOs as a medium-term focal point that could influence future capital allocation.

Looking ahead, Bitcoin is expected to remain on a downward trajectory, pressured by a combination of geopolitical risks, ETF outflows, concerns over slowing institutional demand, regulatory uncertainty, and looming mega-IPOs. While the massive liquidations mid-week likely helped flush out short-term speculative positions to some extent, the market will likely experience a sluggish recovery until a resurgence in spot demand or a reversal in ETF flows is confirmed.