Multiple Factors Driving Bitcoin: Improved U.S. Treasury Dynamics and a Weaker Dollar Act as Tailwinds

Key Points of This Article

1. Falling U.S. long-term yields and a weaker dollar
In August 2026, Bitcoin rose on the back of lower interest rates driven by the U.S. Treasury's expanded bond buybacks, a weaker dollar, and hopes for U.S. crypto policy. After overcoming a temporary deterioration in supply and demand, and with inflows into spot ETFs providing a tailwind, BTC surged to above $76,000.

2. Market outlook and risk factors
Going forward, improving supply and demand for U.S. Treasuries is expected to support buying. However, there are concerns that inflation fears from renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and difficulties in passing the U.S. CLARITY Act could cap further gains. Developments such as the FOMC meetings will be key, with an expected trading range of roughly $64,000 to $89,000 per BTC.

3. BlackRock's assessment of Bitcoin as a diversification tool
Asset management giant BlackRock found that, even after the price decline, adding a small allocation of Bitcoin to a traditional portfolio improves risk-adjusted returns. With spot ETFs becoming more widespread, Bitcoin is shifting from a speculative holding to part of institutional investors' asset allocation.

I'm Masamichi Matsushima, a.k.a. Marin, a crypto analyst at Monex Securities. Once again, I'll look back at the Bitcoin (BTC) market and share my outlook for what's ahead.

Price Change in August 2026

Bitcoin surged in August 2026. At the start of the month, weak U.S. jobs data dampened expectations of another rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, and prices recovered.

However, concerns about worsening supply and demand grew as U.S.-based Strategy sold off its BTC holdings in a series of sales. On top of that, uncertainty over U.S.-Iran talks pushed up oil prices and U.S. interest rates, and Bitcoin fell alongside AI and semiconductor stocks.

On the other hand, the release of proposed rules under the U.S. GENIUS Act and regulatory developments at the SEC and CFTC provided support, and BTC held firm around $64,000.

After that, slowing U.S. CPI and the Treasury's expanded bond buybacks pushed down long-term yields and the dollar index, strengthening buying in gold and Bitcoin. President Trump's call for the swift passage of the CLARITY Act and his remarks about the U.S. considering Bitcoin purchases added further momentum, and BTC broke through $70,000. With short covering and inflows into spot ETFs also contributing, BTC surged to above $76,000.