The cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin, is booming, but what kind of price movements do you expect in 2025?
Kasou Nishi: In normal years, after the market price soars, it is tax season in the United States, so it may move weakly around April and May. However, this time, with Trump inaugurated as president, I think the market will change significantly depending on the trends regarding the establishment of a Bitcoin reserve. This magazine will be released on January 30th, but market participants at Deribit, a representative Bitcoin options exchange, see a 29% chance that 1 BTC will reach $110,000 at the end of January.
How important do you think it is that the United States is moving towards establishing a Bitcoin reserve at this time, and how do you think the price of Bitcoin will change in the future as a result?
Kasou Nishi: Originally, Bitcoin was called digital gold, and when conflicts between nations become more intense, it tends to be seen as an alternative to gold. Taking these characteristics into account, I think that people in the United States are trying to hold Bitcoin in the same way as gold.
The United States may hold 1 million BTC through the Bitcoin Reserve, which is equivalent to about 5% of the total number of Bitcoins issued. If the United States really holds this much Bitcoin, I think the price will become rigid at a high level after that. Just like gold, volatility will be low and there will be a shortage of sellers. Also, as Bitcoin's volatility decreases, even if an economic shock such as a global stock market crash occurs in the future, I think it will change its nature to a risk-off product like gold.
As mentioned at the beginning, Trump's actions will likely have a major impact on Bitcoin in the future.
