Bitcoin has been moving weakly amid various developments since President Trump took office. Please summarize the factors that have led to this situation and tell us about future developments.
Kasou Nishi: First of all, one of the factors that caused the price of Bitcoin to fall is that President Trump's cryptocurrency-related actions fell short of market expectations. Initially, when the President signed the bill on January 23, it was not the creation of a Bitcoin reserve of 1 million BTC with 200,000 BTC stockpiled for five years as the market had expected, but rather only to consider the establishment of a digital asset reserve that includes Bitcoin and stable coins.
Furthermore, even in the bill signed on March 6, there was little content regarding additional Bitcoin purchases, and President Trump's SNS posts about altcoins in advance were also excluded, resulting in widespread disappointment.
In addition, there are two major factors that have led to Bitcoin's current weak movement.
The first is the tariff-related actions by the United States and the associated interest rate trends. I'm sure you all remember that cryptocurrency prices fell across the board in early February after President Trump declared that he would impose additional tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. Additional tariffs were actually imposed on Canada, Mexico, and China.
The imposition of additional tariffs and reciprocal tariffs will raise import prices, so the inflation rate in the United States is expected to rise. If that happens, there is a high possibility that the previous monetary easing stance will be retreated in order to eliminate inflation, and the number of interest rate cuts may also decrease.
Please refer to the previous issue for the relationship between Bitcoin and interest rates, but this situation has caused market participants to turn negative in their outlook, resulting in a record 3.5 trillion yen of selling in one day.
The second is "tax selling." Just like in Japan, tax season is approaching in the United States, and when paying taxes on profits made from cryptocurrencies, it is basically necessary to prepare dollars. This will accelerate the movement to sell cryptocurrencies in order to prepare funds to pay taxes.
Bitcoin prices have risen significantly over the last year, and considering the possibility that many people will sell their bitcoin to prepare for tax payments, it is expected that prices will remain heavy for the time being.
After the tax season comes the "Sell in May" period, and the market will enter a sluggish summer heat. What factors could act as a catalyst for this?
