Bitcoin prices, which had been falling throughout April, are showing signs of rising again just before May. Analysts at cryptocurrency analysis firm K33 suggest that buying and holding Bitcoin now could be profitable, but for those accustomed to investing in other assets like stocks, it might be a difficult step to take.
'Sell in May and go away' is an old adage in the investment world. Looking at the past 30 years of data from the NYSE Dow Jones Industrial Average, it is indeed true that stock prices are overwhelmingly likely to fall from May to September. This coincides with the influx of funds from U.S. tax refunds occurring from February to May, which typically leads to a temporary peak around May.
During the summer, many investors take vacations, which could explain the reduced trading volume, although this is a weak basis for a clear rationale. Such phenomena, which cannot be explained by modern portfolio theory or market theories, are termed 'anomalies.'
This anomaly leads many investors to believe that the stock market is more prone to recession in May. A recession refers to a state where the economy is in decline, typically indicated by two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Following the stock market anomaly, it is common to see profit-taking sales increase from April to May, with stock prices generally falling from September to October.
The 'Sell in May' anomaly is also considered applicable to cryptocurrencies. No matter how innovative the market created by new technologies, as long as humans are trading, it is difficult to be completely free from traditional investment practices and psychological biases. Indeed, historical data on Bitcoin shows that prices tend to decline in May, leading some investors to temporarily let go of their Bitcoin holdings.
But is this strategy really correct? When everyone around you is saying to sell Bitcoin in May, it's precisely the time when your own judgment is tested. Essentially, in the world of short-term speculation, those who contravene the norm tend to profit. It is a fact that there are people who make a profit by buying during this period when everyone else is selling.
In this feature, we want to discuss the recession theory in cryptocurrencies that seems to stem from anomalies, from a neutral perspective. Particularly, with the Trump administration in 2025 and the emergence of phenomena that defy conventional wisdom, it's worth questioning whether it's right to continue adhering to outdated anomalies.
'Investment is your own responsibility,' which, rephrased, means 'Think for yourself.' In fact, not limited to cryptocurrency investments, many in the investment world abandon the responsibility to think by absolutizing common sense and theories. This feature will introduce various opinions. We encourage you to contemplate the May anomaly and recession for yourself.
