The Impact of Unrestricted Technological Innovation: The Dual-Use Shock

Summary

1. The Backflow of Civilian Technology into National Security

While the transfer of military technology to civilian use was once predominant, a structural shift is now occurring where civilian-led advanced technologies such as AI and semiconductors are flowing back into the realm of national security. Against the backdrop of rising geopolitical risks, technology is transforming from merely an economic rationality to a core component of national strategy.

2. The Fusion of Defense Tech and Capital

In the United States, "defense tech" startups are emerging with the agility of startups to take on national defense, attracting massive venture capital investments. In an era where national security drives markets, speed and securing supply chains are prioritized over traditional ethical constraints to avoid being outpaced by other countries.

3. Japan's Challenges and Unique Strategy

While Japan is active in fields such as advanced semiconductors, it faces barriers such as regulatory delays, a lack of risk capital, and a cautious stance on defense. It is urgent for Japan to design ethics and governance based on its unique strategy, rather than avoiding discussions and leaving the future technological order to other countries.

Dual-use refers to technologies that can be utilized for both civilian and military purposes. While the flow of military technology to civilian use was once central, technologies that have evolved under civilian leadership, such as AI, semiconductors, space, and quantum, are now reversing back into the national security domain.

Amid U.S.-China tensions, wars, and supply chain restructuring, technology is both an industrial competitive edge and a core of national strategy. Dual-use is no longer a niche concept but a necessary literacy for understanding modern technological development.

The Shift from "State-Led to Civilian-Led"

The current trend is not merely about an increase in technologies that can be used for military purposes. Advanced fields such as AI, semiconductors, space, quantum, cyber, and robotics are growth areas supporting the civilian economy while also serving as foundations that influence national security advantages.

The greatest factor accelerating this change is the rise in geopolitical risks. The prolonged U.S.-China rivalry, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and instability in the Middle East have turned technology into both the driving force of economic activity and a weapon in international competition. Export restrictions on semiconductors, securing critical minerals, and vigilance over communication infrastructure are emblematic of this shift. Supply chains once left to market principles are being redesigned from a national security perspective.

Among these, AI and semiconductors symbolize modern dual-use domains. AI is used to enhance efficiency in healthcare, education, finance, and manufacturing, while also being applied in satellite image analysis, cyber defense, drone control, information warfare, and decision support. The AI race is not only a competition in model development but also a comprehensive national competition.