Hitoshi Taguchi, head of DMM Bitcoin, a long-established cryptocurrency exchange in Japan, describes the current situation in which spot Bitcoin ETF trading is becoming more active in the United States as "an extremely groundbreaking event."
As the head of a cryptocurrency exchange, he will provide a detailed explanation of the future outlook and important indicators.
Currently, the cryptocurrency market is booming, with Bitcoin at the forefront, but how do you think it will trend in the future?
Hitoshi Taguchi (hereinafter, Taguchi): Looking at Bitcoin's past halvings, the price tends to fall just before and just after the halving, then break its all-time high within 12 months and then rise.
Specifically, it tends to reach nearly double the current price 9 to 12 months later, so considering that it broke its all-time high of $73,000 before the halving, I think it may rise to around $155,000 by 2025. Converted to Japanese yen, that's about 24 million yen (at the time of the interview).
Bitcoin's price is expected to reach important milestones of $80,000, $100,000, $120,000, and $150,000, so I think volatility will increase as it approaches these levels.
On the other hand, from the perspective of a cryptocurrency exchange operator, the rise in cryptocurrency prices makes it even more important for the exchange to have sufficient capital and liquidity in fiat currency on hand.
Simply put, exchanges that are unable to secure sufficient capital should be aware that unforeseen circumstances may occur if the market overheats beyond their means.
Specifically, if a sales office does not have sufficient capital and liquidity in fiat currency on hand, it may not be able to respond appropriately to customer buy and sell orders.
For example, if a sales office offering a variety of cryptocurrencies receives sales of cryptocurrencies from customers that far exceed the liquidity of the fiat currency on hand, it will be necessary to promptly preserve the fiat currency in the customer's account in trust. However, if it is not possible to promptly sell the sold cryptocurrency on the market and obtain the fiat currency, it will be necessary to use the exchange's own liquidity on hand to protect the trust of customers.
We place importance on behind-the-scenes preparations, such as preparing the necessary capital and liquidity in advance to deal with the expected risk of price increases.
Currently, there is a discussion in Japan about raising the ratio in leveraged cryptocurrency trading, and the issue of capital is also a concern.
Increasing leverage will increase sales for businesses. However, I feel that there may be differences between businesses in terms of their ability to prepare separate funds for customers' unrealized gains.
We provide cryptocurrency exchange services and leveraged trading services, and we have prepared a complete response plan in advance to ensure that there are no problems with our financial structure even if Bitcoin quickly reaches $150,000.
Therefore, we would like users who trade cryptocurrencies to choose a place to trade while also considering the financial strength to maintain a perfect state even if the market overheats.
