Quantum Risks to Cryptocurrency's Cryptographic Foundations: A 2035 Transition Plan Proposed to the SEC

A recent proposal submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) warns that quantum computers could potentially collapse the cryptographic foundations of major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. This report was prepared for the SEC’s Cryptocurrency Task Force on September 3rd.

According to the proposal, if Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computers (CRQC) become a reality, they could break cryptographic technologies currently used in cryptocurrencies, such as the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA). Experts estimate that by 2034, there is a 17-34% probability that quantum computers capable of breaking RSA 2048 will emerge.