What is the Impact of a Potential US Government Shutdown on the Cryptocurrency Market? Concerns Over Regulatory and Legislative Delays

The US Congress is facing an imminent deadline to pass or extend the budget by October 1st. While a stopgap spending bill has passed the House, it has failed to garner support from Democrats in the Senate, increasing the likelihood of a partial government shutdown.

The White House is scheduled to hold a meeting on the 29th, where negotiations between President Trump and congressional leaders will take place.

According to the US prediction market Kalshi, the probability of a partial government shutdown on October 1st is currently predicted at 58%. Meanwhile, Polymarket forecasts a 60% chance. As of the 28th, both markets had even higher predictions at 74.5% and 77% respectively.