Galaxy Estimates a 50% Chance of Passage for the U.S. Clarity Act, Identifies Five Remaining Barriers and an August Legislative Deadline

Analysis Puts Bill's Passage Probability at About 50%

On April 22, Galaxy Digital released a research report estimating that the U.S. Cryptocurrency Market Structure Bill, known as the 'Clarity Act,' has a 'roughly 50% or lower' chance of being enacted by 2026.

Prediction market Polymarket also forecasts a 50% probability of the bill's passage, while TD Cowen analyst Jarrett Seiberg expressed a pessimistic view, stating, 'It is possible, but the likelihood of it happening is low.'