Price Formation in Polymarket Trading Dominated by Just 3% of Skilled Traders, Study Finds

97% End Up on the Losing Side, Study Concludes

A joint research team led by Roberto Gomez-Cram of London Business School and Theis Ingerslev Jensen of Yale University has revised and published a paper on the 25th, analyzing the complete transaction history of the prediction market platform 'Polymarket'. The study reveals that a mere 3.14% of skilled traders are driving the price formation, leaving the vast majority, 97%, on the losing side.