Probability of Passing the U.S. Clarity Act This Year Hits Record Low of 32% in Prediction Markets

The probability of the U.S. Clarity Act, which regulates the cryptocurrency market, being enacted by December 31, 2026, has fallen to a record low of 32% on the prediction market platform Polymarket. The likelihood of enactment had risen to the 80% range in February, but has since declined due to a substantial reduction in Senate deliberation time from May onwards and the difficulty in securing the necessary 60 votes from Democratic senators.