As the U.S. midterm election voting progresses through November 4th Japan time, prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket have priced in a 75% and 76% probability, respectively, of Democrats securing a Senate majority as of early morning on November 4th Japan time. Both markets also estimate a 94% probability of Democrats winning the House. Kalshi includes the 'Blue Wave' scenario, predicting Democrats will secure at least 235 House seats and 51 Senate seats, with a 66% probability on election day.
Election results...