[NEWS] Probability of Ethereum spot ETF being approved in May drops to 35% - Bloomberg analyst points out

Eric Balchunas, a senior analyst at Bloomberg, said on the 12th that the chances of an Ethereum spot ETF being approved in May have "dropped to 35%."

Balchunas explained the reasoning behind this by saying, "We don't have all the signs and sources that make us as bullish as we were with the Bitcoin spot ETF. However, 35% is not 0%, and in the long run, we believe it will be approved." He said on X (formerly Twitter).

In January of this year, he predicted that there was a 70% chance that an Ethereum spot ETF would be approved by May, but in March, he significantly lowered this possibility.

James Seyffart, a senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, also expressed a similar view, pointing out that "It feels like the approval cycle for an Ethereum spot ETF is currently in the opposite direction to the odds for a Bitcoin spot ETF. There are about 73 days until the deadline, but in reality, there seems to be very little movement."

The main reason for the fading hopes of two analysts who had been bullish on the imminent approval seems to be the lack of changes to the application prior to the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF.

In January, cryptocurrency market maker GSR estimated the possibility of approval at 70%, still seeing a high probability of approval, but research analyst Brian Rudick noted that "projections are subject to change" and that "if no positive developments are seen within the next month, the probability of approval will decrease."

On the 8th of this month, major US cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase held a three-way meeting with the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) regarding the possibility of converting Ethereum Trust (ETHE), offered by asset management company Grayscale, into a spot ETF.

Meanwhile, regarding the Ethereum spot ETF, the SEC must first determine whether Ethereum is a security, a question that remains unanswered. Until this point is decided, the realization of an Ethereum spot ETF is unclear.

Reference:Balchunas x,Seifert x
Image: Shutterstock

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