Virtual NISHI Weekly Market Analysis: How Trump’s Remarks Shook the Macro Outlook and Sent Bitcoin Lower

Bitcoin had been on a broadly upward trend since the start of the year. However, market sentiment shifted rapidly toward a risk-off stance after President Trump announced his intention to acquire Greenland, a self-governing territory of Denmark, and indicated that additional tariffs would be imposed on imports from eight European countries until the plan is realized.

As a result, Bitcoin fell sharply to around the USD 87,000 level, marking its lowest point since the beginning of the year, and a short-term cooling of investor sentiment became increasingly evident.

In such conditions, it is important to pay attention not only to the macroeconomic environment but also to seasonal factors, or market anomalies.

Historically, the period from January to March often coincides with tax payment seasons in many countries, making it more likely for capital to flow out of financial markets.

Moreover, in the absence of catalysts capable of fundamentally altering market structure—such as ETF approvals or the inauguration of a pro-crypto president—this period tends to see relatively limited upside potential.

The current market environment can be said to be firmly situated within this broader context.

1. January 22–23: Bank of Japan Policy Meeting

The Bank of Japan’s Policy Board, its highest decision-making body, convenes to deliberate on monetary policy, with decisions made by majority vote.

At past policy meetings, Japan’s prolonged period of near-zero interest rates fostered widespread use of the “yen carry trade,” in which investors borrowed in low-yielding yen to invest in higher-yielding assets abroad.

However, as inflation continues to rise domestically, the BOJ has begun shifting toward interest rate hikes, signaling a transition to a tightening phase driven by inflationary pressures.

In such an environment, the unwinding of yen carry trades becomes more likely, potentially acting as a trigger for declines in cryptocurrency and equity markets. This risk warrants close attention.

More recently, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent commented that rising interest rates in Japan are having adverse effects on the U.S. economy, underscoring the growing risk that Japan’s monetary policy could have significant spillover effects on global financial markets.

2. January 19–23: World Economic Forum Annual Meeting (Davos)

The Davos meeting is the common name for the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting, held each January in the Swiss mountain resort town of Davos.

It is widely recognized as a major international conference where heads of government, corporate CEOs, international organizations, academics, NGOs, and media representatives gather to discuss the most pressing global issues of the year.

Through its publicly accessible “Open Forum,” the event also allows general participation on a first-come, first-served basis, reflecting its high level of public interest.

At this year’s meeting, attention has focused on President Trump’s decision to suspend planned additional tariffs on imports from eight European countries, following tensions surrounding his proposal to acquire Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark.

This move has helped ease excessive market caution and has recently contributed to gains in both equity markets and cryptocurrency prices.

3. February 10–12: Consensus

Consensus is one of the most widely recognized international conferences in the cryptocurrency and blockchain industry and serves as CoinDesk’s flagship event.

Participants span a broad range of sectors, including exchanges, venture capital firms, financial institutions, payments, audit and legal services, and media, making it a key venue for cross-industry information sharing and networking.Such events often play a role in shaping market expectations and can exert a meaningful influence on cryptocurrency price formation.

This year in particular, stablecoins and regulatory developments are likely to emerge as central themes, and statements made during the conference—as well as policy-related messaging—could significantly influence investor sentiment.

Recent cryptocurrency markets have exhibited distinct patterns in the way volatility emerges.

In particular, during periods with limited event-driven news, prices and trading volumes tend to fluctuate sharply around the time trading begins for IBIT, the world’s largest Bitcoin ETF, on Nasdaq—around 11:30 p.m. Japan time on weekdays during the winter schedule.

Around this window, market makers and retail investors are increasingly likely to take opposing positions, which often leads to short-term price reversals and heightened intraday volatility.

In addition, with regard to the daily candle close, recent market behavior suggests that the day’s directional bias tends to become clearer around 1:00 a.m. Japan time.

(Date of writing: January 22, 2026)

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