[Virtual NISHI’s Weekly Market Analysis] With the Clarity Act Deadline Looming, Is “Smart Money” Turning Bullish Behind the Sell-Off?

Bitcoin (BTC) traded weakly this week, briefly falling below the psychologically important $64,000 level and recording a decline of as much as $30,000 between February 27 and 28.

The primary driver behind the sell-off appears to be growing uncertainty surrounding the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill, known as the “Clarity Act,” which faces a March 1 deadline.

The bill has been widely anticipated as a landmark measure to provide a formal regulatory foundation for the digital asset market. However, negotiations have stalled due to conflicting interests between the crypto industry and the banking sector. As expectations for a deal by the deadline faded, disappointment-driven selling is believed to have intensified.

Adding to the pressure, tensions resurfaced over tariff policy after the Trump administration strongly pushed back against a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that deemed certain tariffs unconstitutional, heightening concerns about escalating policy conflict and reinforcing broader risk-off sentiment.

Geopolitical risks tied to rising tensions in the Middle East have also weighed on investor confidence.

Furthermore, concerns over profitability amid massive investment in the AI sector have triggered a pullback in U.S. equities, contributing to a broader correction across risk assets.

Against this backdrop of overlapping macroeconomic headwinds, BTC faced renewed selling pressure as part of the broader risk asset complex. In the near term, market conditions are likely to remain volatile and highly sensitive to policy developments and shifts in the macro environment.

In recent years, on-chain analytics tools that label wallet addresses have become increasingly sophisticated. By integrating the AI application Claude via API with the portfolio tracking platform Nansen, it is now possible to efficiently search and analyze the position data of high-performing traders.

This represents one of the core strengths of on-chain analysis—the ability to visualize the holdings of nearly all non-custodial wallets.

Here, we first examine the DeFi positions, as of February 28, of so-called “smart traders,” wallets that have consistently achieved high returns based on on-chain data.

The data show that despite broadly bearish market sentiment, a relatively high proportion of smart traders continue to hold long positions.

In particular, high win-rate players appear to be maintaining bullish exposure even as the March 1 deadline for negotiations on the Clarity Act, set by the White House, approaches.

Are Some Traders Acting on Insider Information?

In conclusion, correlations observed in on-chain data alone are insufficient to definitively conclude—or even infer—that trades were executed based on insider information from the administration.

Insider trading is broadly prohibited in overseas markets as well, and the mere fact that a wallet holds certain positions does not establish causality. It is entirely possible that these positions were built solely on the trader’s own analysis and judgment.

That said, there are wallets that appear to have adjusted positions swiftly around the timing of President Trump’s social media posts on tariffs, seemingly capturing significant profits. When Claude was tasked with analyzing these wallets, two accounts in particular stood out as noteworthy.

The first wallet adjusted its positions with precise timing around President Trump’s recent social media remarks on tariffs, securing notable profits in the process.

The second wallet had constructed a portfolio comprising ENA (stablecoin-related), UNI (linked to DEX commodity classification), INJ and ZRO (cross-chain related), and CRV (DeFi yield-related)—a lineup that appears positioned to benefit from the potential implications of the Clarity Act.

A review of these smart traders shows that, despite having responded adeptly to recent market volatility, they are currently maintaining portfolios centered largely on long positions.

Of course, this should be regarded as just one reference point, and the data alone are insufficient to conclude that the market will move higher. While on-chain data serve as a powerful analytical tool, they do not, in isolation, guarantee future price movements.

Nevertheless, the transparency that allows market participants to visualize others’ positions remains one of the defining characteristics of blockchain markets. Analyzing the actions of players who are actively deploying capital can therefore be an effective approach to interpreting future market trends.

(Written on February 28, 2026)

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