[Virtual NISHI’s Weekly Market Analysis] With the Clarity Act Deadline Looming, Is “Smart Money” Turning Bullish Behind the Sell-Off?(Written on February 28, 2026)

Bitcoin (BTC) traded weakly this week, briefly falling below the psychologically important $64,000 level and recording a decline of as much as $30,000 between February 27 and 28.

The primary driver behind the sell-off appears to be growing uncertainty surrounding the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill, known as the “Clarity Act,” which faces a March 1 deadline.

The bill has been widely anticipated as a landmark measure to provide a formal regulatory foundation for the digital asset market. However, negotiations have stalled due to conflicting interests between the crypto industry and the banking sector. As expectations for a deal by the deadline faded, disappointment-driven selling is believed to have intensified.

Adding to the pressure, tensions resurfaced over tariff policy after the Trump administration strongly pushed back against a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that deemed certain tariffs unconstitutional, heightening concerns about escalating policy conflict and reinforcing broader risk-off sentiment.

Geopolitical risks tied to rising tensions in the Middle East have also weighed on investor confidence.

Furthermore, concerns over profitability amid massive investment in the AI sector have triggered a pullback in U.S. equities, contributing to a broader correction across risk assets.

Against this backdrop of overlapping macroeconomic headwinds, BTC faced renewed selling pressure as part of the broader risk asset complex. In the near term, market conditions are likely to remain volatile and highly sensitive to policy developments and shifts in the macro environment.