Extreme Volatility: Geopolitical Risks Clash with FOMC Signals
4-hour chart as of March 20(Source: TradingView)
Early in the week, BTC extended its rally into the $70,000 range. This momentum was fueled by Bitcoin’s re-emergence as a "stateless asset" (sovereign-neutral asset) amidst the prolonged escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Support also came from a pullback in WTI crude oil futures, which dropped to the low $90s for the first time in four sessions following reports regarding tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Historically, high oil prices have acted as a drag on Bitcoin’s upside by driving up electricity costs for miners; as this pressure eased, the upward trend became more pronounced.
However, the tide turned in the latter half of the week as BTC retreated to the $60,000 level. The catalyst for this reversal was Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks following the FOMC meeting.
While the Fed held interest rates steady, Powell noted that "short-term inflation expectations have ticked up, reflecting significant increases in oil prices." This reignited fears of a "higher-for-longer" monetary policy, sending U.S. Treasury yields higher.
As a non-yielding asset, Bitcoin was forced into a sell-off. Ultimately, the week underscored Bitcoin’s inherent volatility, driven by the complex intersection of geopolitical risk and monetary policy.
Recent Key Economic Indicators & Crypto Events
Key Events (Chronological Order)
Decoding Crypto Market Sentiment through Social Media Data
Leveraging social media—particularly X (formerly Twitter)—is essential for navigating the cryptocurrency market. Given its deep roots in technology, crypto is uniquely prone to the rapid spread of information and speculation on social platforms compared to traditional financial assets like equities. Consequently, X has become a vital hub for gauging market sentiment and investor psychology in real-time.
In this report, we collaborated with Mind Palace, a firm specializing in AI-driven crypto social media analysis, to visualize the market landscape. We investigated the peripheral interests of accounts following Metaplanet, a prominent Bitcoin treasury firm that has consistently captured public attention, to identify which other tokens and projects are attracting their focus.
Inside the Metaplanet Community: SNS Analysis Reveals a Strong Appetite for High Volatility
Our analysis reveals two distinct investment profiles within the Metaplanet community. The first is a "hyper-focused" group, concentrating exclusively on Metaplanet-related developments. The second is a "diversified-interest" group, which holds Metaplanet as a core asset while actively exploring a wide range of other altcoins. This highlights a clear bipolarization within the community between "single-focus" and "broad-interest" investors.
There was also a significant surge in attention toward JPYC, a company in which Metaplanet has invested. While opinions on JPYC are somewhat divided, the overall sentiment remains predominantly positive. Investors appear to view JPYC as a key factor that bolsters Metaplanet’s long-term potential, making it an integral part of the bullish narrative sustaining their confidence.
Notably, we observed a high concentration of interest in meme coins and XRP. This suggests that a subset of Metaplanet followers is naturally drawn to assets characterized by high volatility and strong social buzz. Furthermore, data indicates that a specific segment of this audience likely entered the crypto market through ties with the SBI Group or via shareholder perks.
Overall, the Metaplanet community displays a clear preference for high-return strategies. While Ethereum (ETH) is frequently referenced as a relatively stable benchmark to gauge general market conditions, the most fervent expectations—and capital—tend to gravitate toward high-volatility assets like meme coins. Although the primary interest in Metaplanet stems from the "Bitcoin Treasury" narrative, it has clearly become a hub for capital seeking significant price action and thematic upside.
Interview: Iolite FACE vol.18 Takeshi Chino, Representative Director, Binance Japan
PHOTO & INTERVIEW: Mai Shin
Special Features:
“Future Money — The Current State of Value Transfer”
“Upcoming Amendments to Japan’s Crypto Asset Regulations”
“The Reality of IEOs”
Crypto Journey
Beyond a Treasury Company: Becoming an Ethereum Evangelist —
The Essence and Determination Behind HODL1’s Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) Strategy
Interview with Hiroki Tahara, Representative Director, Kusim Inc. (now HODL1)
Series: “Expert Perspectives on Interpreting Volatile Crypto Markets” — Kasou NISHI
Series
Tech and Future — Toshinao Sasaki
…and more
MAGAZINE
Iolite Vol.18
March 2026 issueReleased on 2026/01/30
Interview: Iolite FACE vol.18 Takeshi Chino, Representative Director, Binance Japan
PHOTO & INTERVIEW: Mai Shin
Special Features:
“Future Money — The Current State of Value Transfer”
“Upcoming Amendments to Japan’s Crypto Asset Regulations”
“The Reality of IEOs”
Crypto Journey
Beyond a Treasury Company: Becoming an Ethereum Evangelist —
The Essence and Determination Behind HODL1’s Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) Strategy
Interview with Hiroki Tahara, Representative Director, Kusim Inc. (now HODL1)
Series: “Expert Perspectives on Interpreting Volatile Crypto Markets” — Kasou NISHI
Series
Tech and Future — Toshinao Sasaki
…and more