──Bitcoin and Ethereum reached new all-time highs in August. Please explain the factors behind these new highs and their subsequent developments.
Kasou Nishi: Although they reached new all-time highs in August, they have since stagnated. The main reason for the new all-time highs was reports that Treasury Secretary Bessent had requested an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. For cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, which do not generate interest, monetary easing such as interest rate cuts easily puts upward pressure on them, and Bitcoin reached a new all-time high the morning of August 14th, Japan time.
However, that same evening, Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that the federal government's Bitcoin reserve would be built solely from confiscated assets worth $15 billion to $20 billion and would not purchase any new assets. He also reversed his previous statement that he would not request an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, causing the market to plummet. The fact that the US government denied the idea of a Bitcoin reserve funded by taxpayers' money was particularly disappointing.
Additionally, the fact that there has been no progress since March on the 1 million BTC reserve pledge made by Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis when President Trump was elected, and the departure of Beau Hines, Executive Director of the White House Cryptocurrency Council, which was exploring new acquisitions funded by customs revenue, are factors that have significantly stalled the US reserve plan. These are the biggest factors behind the stagnation in late August.
──At the time of writing, there is a growing possibility of a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. To what extent do you think this will impact the market going forward? Or has the market already factored in a September rate cut?
Kasou Nishi: Given the weak US employment statistics on September 6th, the market has put the possibility of a rate cut at over 98% on Fed Watch, meaning it's pretty much already factored in. Monetary easing tends to be more common at the end of the year following the halving, which is likely to be a strong tailwind for crypto assets. Therefore, while a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting is already factored in, once an official decision is made, we expect there to be a buying spree in the market.
