Summary
1. 2025 was a “maturing year” for the crypto market, marked by both optimism and disappointment
In 2025, the crypto market experienced multiple bullish drivers, including expectations surrounding the Trump administration, progress in regulatory frameworks, and the rise of treasury-focused companies. At the same time, delays in concrete policy implementation, stablecoin depegging incidents, and a series of DeFi-related failures triggered significant market corrections. As a result, the year highlighted both the long-term growth potential of crypto assets and the increasing importance of structural risk awareness and risk management.
2. The key theme for 2026 is real-world adoption driven by stablecoins and regulatory clarity
The single most influential factor for the crypto market in 2026 is expected to be the full-scale expansion of the stablecoin ecosystem following the implementation of the U.S. GENIUS Act. As major financial institutions, payment providers, and Web3 companies enter the space, crypto assets are likely to become more deeply integrated with the real economy through payments and remittances. This shift could transform the market structure from speculation-driven to demand-driven. In parallel, the proposed Clarity Act—designed to clearly delineate the jurisdictions of the SEC and CFTC—represents a critical regulatory turning point that could significantly lower barriers for cross-industry participation.
3. The “halving anomaly” is weakening, and 2026 will be a market shaped by institutions and real demand
Historically, the halving anomaly has been supported by liquidity conditions created by the overlap of Bitcoin halvings and U.S. presidential election cycles, which often coincided with accommodative monetary policy. In 2026, however, while monetary conditions may remain relatively loose, price formation is unlikely to be explained by historical patterns alone. Instead, the crypto market is expected to transition into a phase where medium- to long-term value is assessed primarily through regulatory progress and the expansion of real-world demand—particularly driven by stablecoins.
Bitcoin ultimately ended 2025 below its price at the start of the year. Looking back, how would you characterize the crypto market in 2025?
Kasou NISHI: The crypto market in 2025 can best be described as a year in which the gap between expectations and reality became unmistakably clear. At the beginning of the year, market expectations—particularly around Bitcoin—had risen to excessively optimistic levels.
In the end, however, Bitcoin finished the year below its opening price, an outcome that came as a surprise to many investors.
The market dynamics of 2025 are easier to understand when viewed through five distinct phases.
Phase 1 (October 2024 to late January 2025): The Trump Expectation Rally
This period was marked by a strong rally driven by expectations surrounding Donald Trump’s inauguration. Hopes for a crypto-friendly policy shift under the Trump administration intensified, and proposals such as Senator Cynthia Lummis’s plan for a U.S. government Bitcoin reserve of one million BTC drew significant attention.
Around the time of the inauguration, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high, while Trump-themed tokens surged, creating a powerful expectation-driven market.
Phase 2 (February to April 2025): The “Trump Disappointment” Phase
Many of the policy expectations priced in ahead of the inauguration failed to materialize in the first half of 2025. Even the White House Crypto Summit held in March did not deliver the concrete outcomes the market had hoped for.
At the same time, uncertainty surrounding tariff hikes disrupted equity markets, leading to broad selling across risk assets. Crypto assets followed suit, entering a clear downtrend.
Phase 3 (April to July 2025): Treasury Companies as a New Market Theme
From April through July, the market found support from a new theme centered on treasury-focused companies. In Japan, Metaplanet— which incorporated Bitcoin into its corporate treasury strategy—saw its share price surge, eventually breaking into the top 100 companies by market capitalization and drawing widespread attention.
Rising stock prices among treasury-oriented firms, including Strategy overseas, also signaled capital inflows from equity investors who had previously kept some distance from the crypto market. This crossover of investor bases was one of the defining features of 2025.
Phase 4 (August to Early October 2025): The “Crypto Week” Summer Rally
The next rally was triggered by “Crypto Week” in the U.S. House of Representatives. During this period, three major crypto-related bills were passed, and President Trump’s clear commitment to them was well received by the market.
Among these, the passage of the GENIUS Act, which legally defined stablecoins, was particularly significant. The law encouraged participation by financial institutions and payment providers worldwide.
In general, growth in stablecoin supply functions much like quantitative easing within the crypto market, acting as a price-supportive factor. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of USD 126,000 on October 6.
Phase 5 (October to December 2025): Renewed Market Correction
From October through December, the market entered another sharp correction. A large-scale liquidation triggered by the USDe depegging event on October 11—later dubbed the “10/11 Shock”—marked the turning point.
This was followed by fund outflows at Balancer and repeated depegging incidents involving certain algorithmic stablecoins, rapidly deteriorating market sentiment.
This sequence of events can be described as a “mini version” of the Terra–Luna shock that once sent the entire market into free fall. Many market participants and market makers suffered significant losses, resulting in a market environment that required considerable time to recover.
In summary, the crypto market in 2025 was shaped by an intersection of positive forces—policy expectations, regulatory progress, and advancements in financial infrastructure—and structural risks centered on stablecoins. While the market continued to mature and acquire new growth engines, it was also a year that forcefully underscored the importance of risk management.
