Bitcoin moves towards physical ETFs and half-life | Monex, Masamichi Matsushima.

[October review and December market outlook.]

Downside limited in 2024 due to awareness of bitcoin's half-life?

October bitcoin market review

In October, bitcoin continued to be held back on the upside as US interest rates continued to rise, but soared to the BTC=5.2 million level following progress on the review of physical ETFs.

Crypto asset media outlet Cointelegraph posted the headline ‘BlackRock's physical bitcoin ETF approved’ on a social networking site, which was a false alarm, but shortly afterwards, BlackRock's application for the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBTC) was listed on the US Depository Trust and Clearing Corp. 's (DTCC) eligible list, which led to a flurry of anticipatory buying.

In addition, as the deteriorating situation in Palestine raised awareness of geopolitical risks, bitcoin became increasingly correlated with gold and attracted some attention as a flight asset.

Outlook for the bitcoin market in December

The main focus for bitcoin in December will be whether the US FOMC (12-13 December), the last meeting of the year, will raise interest rates additionally. The subsequent market development is expected to differ depending on whether Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasises an end to interest rate hikes or leaves open the possibility of additional hikes next year and beyond.

In the case of the bitcoin physical ETF, if it is realised by the end of the year, it is expected to rise to close to 6 million yen BTC, but if it is carried over to next year, it may fall below 5 million yen BTC again due to disappointment selling.

However, if it is carried over to next year, disappointment selling could push the price below BTC=5 million yen again.

Marin's focus: Polygon (MATIC)

In this article, we introduce Polygon (MATIC), known as the Layer 2 solution for Ethereum.

Polygon originally operated as Matic Network, but rebranded to its current name in 2021. It subsequently gained significant attention as a network with far lower fees than Ethereum amidst the DeFi boom.

It is in the top 15 in CoinMarketCap's market capitalisation ranking (as of end-October 2023).

Such is the case with Polygon, but in fact, the price of MATIC tokens has fallen steadily since the network failure in February 2023. The US authorities have pointed out the securities nature of MATIC tokens, and most recently one of the co-founders announced that he is leaving the project, leading to uncertainty regarding the future roadmap.

On the other hand, Polygon has been able to forge diverse and strong partnerships, including with Master Card, Google and the Monetary Authority of Singapore. As a layer 2, Polygon has also strengthened its character as a technology infrastructure by launching a new development plan called Polygon 2.0 and providing an open-source development kit for other projects.

The price of the MATIC tokens alone has led to some concern about Polygon, but if concurrent partnerships and developments start to sprout, the current price may be undervalued.

Profile.

Masamichi Matsushima

Crypto asset analyst, Monex University, Monex, Inc. Graduated from Osaka University with a degree in economics. After retiring from a city bank, he became a member of the research firm Baroque Street, where he was involved in industry research and market analysis of the crypto asset and blockchain industry. At Monex Cryptobank, he authored the industry research reports ‘Blockchain Trends in China (2020)’, ‘Blockchain Use Cases and Issues in the Supply Chain Domain at Home and Abroad’ and ‘Blockchain Data Book 2020’. He also contributes to domestic media and has been in his current position since March 2021.

[HP] https://cryptobk.jp/



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