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I'm Masamichi Matsushima aka Marin, a cryptocurrency analyst at Monex Securities. This time, I'll be reviewing the Bitcoin market and outlining its future outlook.
Bitcoin in April 2024 was weak along with US stocks as US interest rates rose. US economic indicators, including employment statistics, exceeded market expectations, and expectations for when interest rates would start to be lowered were postponed.
In addition, tensions in the Middle East rapidly increased due to Iran's attack on Israel, and risk-averse selling intensified in financial markets.
There were also scenes of buying in anticipation of the fourth Bitcoin halving, but the momentum has weakened since it passed.
In the second half of April, continuous capital inflows into BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF "IBIT" stopped, and US Bitcoin spot ETF buying also stalled, dropping below 10 million BTC.
On the 30th, spot ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum were listed in Hong Kong, but first-day trading volume was disappointing, spreading disappointment.
The biggest focus for Bitcoin going forward is whether the US FOMC in June will predict when interest rates will start to be lowered. At present, interest rates are expected to start from July onwards, but if this prediction is delayed further, it is expected that the market will become dominated by selling as US interest rates remain high.
It is possible that spot Bitcoin ETFs will be bought outside the US, such as in Hong Kong, the UK, and Australia, due to expectations of the ETF, but it is a necessary condition that the stock market does not collapse significantly due to macroeconomic influences.
As Bitcoin passes the halving and is in a difficult position to attract material, there is a possibility that the search for altcoins such as meme coins will accelerate in search of greater volatility.
However, new material will be needed to encourage large funds for a medium- to long-term rise.
This time, we will introduce Toncoin (TON), which has a strong connection to the messaging app Telegram.
Telegram is a huge app with approximately 900 million users worldwide, and is a familiar communication tool in the cryptocurrency community.
Toncoin is a blockchain project started by the founder of Telegram, and is issued on its own blockchain called The Open Network (TON).
Due to recent trends, it has risen sharply to 9th place in the CoinMarketCap market capitalization ranking (as of the end of April 2024).
One of the reasons why Toncoin is attracting attention is its connection with Telegram. Since the project started under founder Pavel Durov in 2018, there have been times when the project was forced to dismantle operations and suspend development due to the influence of stricter regulations, but the community has continued to lead the project to this day.
In the midst of this, in March 2024, he mentioned Telegram's IPO in the media, and Toncoin rose significantly due to the expectation.
As another new material, Toncoin is also working on developing a digital identity based on palm scan data.
The relationship between Telegram and Toncoin is similar to the relationship between OpenAI, led by Sam Altman, and WorldCoin (WLD).
It will be interesting to see how Toncoin will interact with Telegram's hundreds of millions of users in the future.
◉ Masamichi Matsushima
Monex Securities Monex University Crypto Asset Analyst
Graduated from the Faculty of Economics at Osaka University. After leaving a city bank, he was involved in industry research and market analysis as a founding member of a crypto asset-related startup. In 2018, he joined the Monex Group. At Monex Crypto Bank, he wrote industry research reports such as "Blockchain Trends in China (2020)" and "Blockchain Data Book 2020", and currently oversees the Web3 newsletter and research report "MCB RESEARCH". He also contributes to many domestic media. He has been in his current position since March 2021.
Bitcoin market outlook for 2024 | Monex Securities, Masamichi Matsushima
Bitcoin moves with spot ETFs and halving in mind | Monex Securities, Masamichi Matsushima
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