Bitcoin market review for April and future outlook: The biggest focus is on the FOMC in June and when interest rates will start to be cut | Monex Securities, Masatoshi Matsushima

The biggest focus is on the June FOMC meeting and when interest rates will start to be cut

I'm Masamichi Matsushima aka Marin, a cryptocurrency analyst at Monex Securities. This time, I'll be reviewing the Bitcoin market and outlining its future outlook.

Bitcoin in April 2024 was weak along with US stocks as US interest rates rose. US economic indicators, including employment statistics, exceeded market expectations, and expectations for when interest rates would start to be lowered were postponed.

In addition, tensions in the Middle East rapidly increased due to Iran's attack on Israel, and risk-averse selling intensified in financial markets.

There were also scenes of buying in anticipation of the fourth Bitcoin halving, but the momentum has weakened since it passed.

In the second half of April, continuous capital inflows into BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF "IBIT" stopped, and US Bitcoin spot ETF buying also stalled, dropping below 10 million BTC.

On the 30th, spot ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum were listed in Hong Kong, but first-day trading volume was disappointing, spreading disappointment.

The biggest focus for Bitcoin going forward is whether the US FOMC in June will predict when interest rates will start to be lowered. At present, interest rates are expected to start from July onwards, but if this prediction is delayed further, it is expected that the market will become dominated by selling as US interest rates remain high.

It is possible that spot Bitcoin ETFs will be bought outside the US, such as in Hong Kong, the UK, and Australia, due to expectations of the ETF, but it is a necessary condition that the stock market does not collapse significantly due to macroeconomic influences.

As Bitcoin passes the halving and is in a difficult position to attract material, there is a possibility that the search for altcoins such as meme coins will accelerate in search of greater volatility.

However, new material will be needed to encourage large funds for a medium- to long-term rise.