I'm Mari Matsushima, a.k.a. Mari, a cryptocurrency analyst at Monex Securities. This time, I'll be looking back at the Bitcoin market and giving my outlook for the future.
In June 2024, Bitcoin was dominated by selling as interest rate cut expectations receded following major economic indicators and the results of the FOMC in the United States, and capital outflows from spot ETFs were also noticeable. The May US employment statistics were significantly higher than market expectations, increasing uncertainty about when interest rate cuts would begin. The May US Consumer Price Index, which was subsequently announced, fell for the second consecutive month, suggesting a slowdown in inflation.
However, at the FOMC, Fed Chairman Powell showed a cautious stance on keeping interest rates unchanged and lowering interest rates, and the expected number of interest rate cuts this year was reduced to one. In the midst of this series of events, there were some instances of rebounding due to expectations for the start of trading in Ethereum spot ETFs, but when large Bitcoin transfers related to German authorities and Mt. Gox were confirmed, the selling pressure was feared and the price fell below 10 million BTC.
Although there remains a risk of further decline in Bitcoin in the future, we expect it to remain firm. While the S&P and Nasdaq continue to reach new all-time highs, the market is overheating, especially with NVIDIA's stock price soaring. Bitcoin is also seen as a leading indicator of US stocks, so if US stocks turn to selling in this trend, Bitcoin may be sold further.
The market will be influenced by US monetary policy between the FOMC in July and the Jackson Hole meeting in August. It is also important to be wary of selling pressure due to the start of repayments at Mt. Gox.
