Bitcoin market review for August and future outlook: Market attention shifts from US interest rate trends to economic trends

I'm Mari Matsushima, a.k.a. Marin, a cryptocurrency analyst at Monex Securities. This time, I'll be looking back at the Bitcoin market and giving my outlook for the future.

A look back at August and future market outlook

In August 2024, Bitcoin fell sharply to the 7 million yen range as global risk aversion intensified amid a historic crash in the Nikkei average. The Bank of Japan's decision to raise interest rates led to a rapid appreciation of the yen in anticipation of the narrowing of the interest rate gap between Japan and the United States, which led to the unwinding of yen carry trades, and the worsening of the July employment statistics in the United States led to concerns about a recession in the United States. This led to a combination of factors that led to increased selling of risk assets.

After that, the Bank of Japan denied the possibility of an early additional interest rate hike, which subsided market turmoil, and Bitcoin rebounded strongly along with stocks. At one point, the price returned to the 9 million yen range, but there were concerns such as the worsening situation in Iran and Israel and the US government's selling of Bitcoin, and the market continued to fluctuate. There was also a movement to keep a close eye on the contents of the Jackson Hole Conference, and a wait-and-see mood spread in the market.

Although the global situation remains unclear, we believe that Bitcoin's price may gradually rise in the future. Market interest is shifting from interest rate trends to economic trends in the United States, and if economic indicators released after September or the next FOMC meeting cause concerns about a US recession to resurface, selling pressure on risk assets in general is expected to intensify.

In addition, if a war breaks out between Iran and Israel, the risk of a short-term decline cannot be denied. However, in an environment where recession and geopolitical risks are strongly considered, Bitcoin's nature as digital gold, like gold, may attract attention and buying may become dominant to protect assets.

If there are signs that Bitcoin is differentiated from other risk assets and begins to play the role of a safe asset, it is possible that buying through physical ETFs will also help Bitcoin regain its upward momentum at once.