Bitcoin Market Outlook: Will Bitcoin Trade Range-Bound in 2026? A Scenario That Could Test the All-Time Highs

Summary

1. Range-bound market, not a sharp correction, is the base case for Bitcoin in 2026

In past halving cycles, the year following a new all-time high often saw a significant correction. This time, however, the market structure has changed. With a growing share of medium- to long-term capital replacing short-term speculative flows, downside pressure is likely to be limited. As a result, 2026 is more likely to see Bitcoin trade within a broad range rather than experience a major collapse.

2. Excess liquidity and regulatory progress provide downside support

Global liquidity conditions are becoming increasingly supportive, driven by the Fed’s shift to rate cuts and the end of quantitative tightening, alongside fiscal stimulus in Japan and Europe. With a fixed supply cap, Bitcoin is more easily positioned as an inflation hedge. At the same time, the expansion of ETFs, the entry of major financial institutions, and advancing regulatory frameworks are contributing to greater market stability.

3. Sovereign demand could push prices toward new highs, while downside risks remain contained

If sovereign-level adoption—such as the introduction of Bitcoin reserve assets—gains momentum, Bitcoin could retest its all-time high range and, under favorable conditions, move toward the USD 200,000 level. On the downside, risks such as renewed inflation, a return to monetary tightening, or stricter regulation on crypto-holding corporations remain. Even so, levels around USD 75,000 (the average acquisition cost of major corporate holders) and roughly USD 65,000 (the price at the time of the last halving) are likely to act as key downside reference points.

I’m Marin Matsushima, a crypto asset analyst at Monex Securities, also known as Marin. In this column, I will walk through my outlook for the Bitcoin market in 2026.

Year-to-Date Performance

Bitcoin’s performance in 2025 was heavily influenced by shifting expectations and subsequent disappointment surrounding Trump-era policy developments.

After declining in the spring amid heightened uncertainty triggered by additional tariff measures, Bitcoin rebounded on the back of several supportive factors: the U.S. government’s stance on Bitcoin holdings, state-level proposals for strategic reserve legislation, increased corporate purchases, and growing expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts. These dynamics propelled Bitcoin to a new all-time high in October.

However, the market reversed sharply in November as concerns converged—including stablecoin depegging incidents, illicit outflows from DeFi protocols, and rising apprehension over companies holding crypto assets on their balance sheets. The recovery toward year-end remained sluggish, leaving Bitcoin underperforming relative to other major asset classes.