With speculation surrounding US monetary policy and industry credit concerns intertwined, Bitcoin is likely to continue experiencing volatile trading.

Summary

1.Bitcoin remained weak in February amid external pressures and credit concerns

Bitcoin traded with a soft tone throughout February, fluctuating amid uncertainty around U.S. monetary policy, the “precious metals shock,” and geopolitical risks. These factors, combined with crypto-specific credit concerns, kept the market volatile. Although there was a temporary rebound mid-month, upside momentum remained limited.

2.Weak demand and growing credit concerns capped gains

Credit anxiety intensified following BlockFills’ suspension of deposits and withdrawals and delays in the CLARITY Act. Continued outflows from Bitcoin ETFs also weighed on sentiment, with selling pressure on rallies highlighting underlying demand weakness.

3.Outlook hinges on U.S. policy and credit conditions; range expected between $50,000-$75,000

The market outlook will largely depend on U.S. monetary policy signals, economic data, geopolitical developments, and credit conditions within the crypto industry. Progress in regulation could support a recovery, while persistent uncertainty may increase downside pressure, suggesting a volatile range-bound market in the near term.

This is Marin Matsushima, a.k.a. Marin, a cryptocurrency analyst at Monex Securities. This time, I will explain the review of the Bitcoin (BTC) market and the future market outlook.

February 2026 Price Change

Bitcoin’s market performance in February 2026 remained weak, fluctuating amid overlapping uncertainties surrounding U.S. monetary policy and crypto-specific concerns over market confidence.

At the beginning of the month, the "precious metals shock" occurred, with the appointment of a hawkish candidate for the next Fed chairman causing sharp fluctuations in the precious metals market, particularly gold. Bitcoin also fell sharply, temporarily dropping to around 9.5 million yen, due to position reductions.

Subsequently, as the declines in precious metals and US stocks subsided, buying emerged on the view that the price was oversold, causing a sharp rebound to around 11 million yen for BTC. However, the upside was limited due to receding expectations of interest rate cuts based on solid US economic indicators, and concerns about geopolitical risks surrounding tensions between the US and Iran.

In addition, the stalled debate on the US CLARITY bill and the spread of credit concerns following the suspension of deposits and withdrawals by cryptocurrency-related company BlockFills weighed on the market. With continued outflows of funds from Bitcoin ETFs and concerns about weak supply and demand, the market ended the month with selling pressure dominating.