──In 2025, we will be in a super-aging society where one in five people will be elderly (75 years or older). Furthermore, companies will also begin to face the problem of the "2025 Cliff," where legacy IT systems developed from the late 1990s to the early 2000s will reach the end of their life one after another. This issue has been talked about for a while, so why has it taken so long to address it?
Toshinao Sasaki (hereinafter Sasaki): The "2025 Cliff" outlined in the "DX Report" released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry in 2018, and the problem of the baby boomer generation suddenly becoming elderly, coincidentally overlap in 2025. Moreover, 1925 was the first year of the Showa era, so I think there are three points in which it will be the 100th year of the Showa era.
The first "2025 Cliff" was originally about the end of maintenance support for SAP ERP versions prior to 16.0, which are still used by large companies, in 2025. In fact, the support period for SAP has been extended until the end of 2027, giving us a little more time. On the other hand, it is said that by 2025, engineers who can handle COBOL will be aging and there will be a shortage of human resources.
One thing is certain: it is not easy to switch core financial systems such as banks. In the 1990s, financial institutions went bankrupt one after another. At that time, the Long-Term Credit Bank of Japan changed its name to Shinsei Bank and tried to make a comeback. It appointed an Indian CTO and switched all of its legacy systems to Windows-based systems, but unless it is a hard landing that would bring about bankruptcy, it is difficult to migrate to a new system.
When introducing technology into a system, there is a school of thought that says, "It's easier to do it later." In terms of infrastructure, ADSL became widespread in Korea in the 1990s, and the country was called a "broadband advanced country."
On the other hand, in Japan, which was lagging behind in ADSL, optical fiber began to spread in the 2000s. At that time, optical fiber did not become widespread in Korea.
Now, in Japan, where optical fiber has become too widespread, the spread of wireless LAN such as 5G and 6G is lagging behind the rest of the world. This phenomenon is also called the "leapfrog phenomenon." It is inevitable that Japan is dragged down by old systems.
The history of digitalization can be traced back to the "OA" era in the 1970s and 1980s, when faxes and copy machines became widespread, the "IT" era in the 2000s, when the means of information transmission changed from fax to email and messengers, and the "DX" era, which attracted attention in the 2010s.
The taxi industry is an easy-to-understand example of the difference and necessity between IT and DX. In the taxi industry, excellent taxi drivers create LINE groups with their work colleagues and exchange information (IT) such as "there is an event in that area today," while devising ways to eliminate idle time.
This is where taxi dispatch apps have become popular. In addition to empty taxis on the road, Uber also shows taxis that are scheduled to drop off customers near where you are as search candidates.
This allows drivers to reduce the time they are empty without even spending time chatting on LINE. This is a prime example of DX, where the business methods and ideas themselves have been digitized.
Returning to the topic of the "2025 Cliff," it is said that among companies that installed SAP ERP systems in the 1990s and 2000s, there are surprisingly few that are doing well with DX.
