A series of articles asking Mr. Toshinao Sasaki about the future of technology and society.
The theme this time is AI and “dialogue” with people.
I would like to ask you again about the “dialogue” between AI and humans, as your book, “I asked Dr. Toshinao Sasaki about ChatGPT from the Future of AI to Business Applications,” has just been released. First of all, as we enter the second half of this year, I feel that the overall topic of generative AI has settled down, but what do you think?
Toshinao Sasaki: There is an annual “hype cycle” published by an American company called Gartner. When a new technology trend emerges, there is a peak period of “excessive expectations,” a period of enthusiasm, followed by a period of disillusionment, and after the period of disillusionment passes, we enter a period of enlightenment, a period of diffusion, and a period of full-scale productivity stability.
The hype cycle was announced in late August, and ChatGPT and generative AI are in their peak phase, while the metaverse is in its disillusionment phase. So there is a good chance that ChatGPT will enter a period of disillusionment between the second half of this year and next year.
What are some of the challenges in the current state of generative AI?
Sasaki: There is the problem of “halucination,” in which AI gives wrong answers, or so-called “lying. To address this issue, ChatGPT learns the entire Internet, and as a countermeasure, we manually remove suspicious data such as those that lead to hate and discrimination, fake news, and so on.
However, the amount of data that has been removed is huge, and it is difficult to remove it completely.
Also, there is a word “視覴(*),” which was discussed a while ago. It is a word that doesn't exist, and was created by ChatGPT. But when you search for that word, you get a lot of hits on web pages. The reason for this is that ChatGPT-generated pages are already so prevalent.
The problem here is that ChatGPT is learning data on the Internet. That data on the Internet was originally supposed to be human-generated, but as more and more web pages are created by AI, ChatGPT is learning them again. So it will just keep learning itself. Then what in the world is going to happen next is unpredictable.
Another problem is that when you ask questions to ChatGPT, the interactive AI, it also learns the data and text you input. If you ask questions that include confidential information, that too will be learned and included in the answers of other companies. This is why a recent survey showed that 70% of Japanese companies have a policy of not using ChatGPT in their companies.
Regarding this issue, Microsoft's 365 Copilot and Windows Copilot to be released in the future will handle copyrights and intellectual property without delay. If the problem can be avoided in this way and the recognition that it can be used as a “tool” spreads, I think there is a possibility that we will get over the period of disillusionment and enter a period of full-fledged popularization.
*Sighting
A word that does not originally exist. A search on the Internet reveals the use of “視覴者” in sentences that appear to be AI output. The AI output with “聴” as “覴” was talked about as a typical example of halucination (artificial intelligence hallucination).
Windows Copilot has been talked about for its introduction of a UI (user interface) in which the OS is operated in an interactive manner. Do you think this type of UI will become more common in the future?
Sasaki: Both PCs and smartphones have had a graphical user interface (GUI) using a mouse or touch screen. And what is the UI beyond the smartphone has been debated for a long time.
Just before ChatGPT appeared, it was said that one was gestures and the other was voice input, as seen in smart speakers. The AI in current smart speakers is not very smart. But if ChatGPT is used, it will become smarter too. So I think there is a strong possibility that voice or verbal communication will become the mainstream UI.
Since ChatGPT is already capable of voice input, communication by text and voice itself will become the basis of all UI. It will become commonplace to be able to talk to a computer and have it respond to you, as seen in old science fiction movies.
At the current stage, is it still important to know how to give instructions to the AI?
Sasaki: Yes, it is. It is often said that “the ability to ask questions” will be a very important skill for the next generation.
The term “prompt engineering” has been coined, but the prompt engineering we are doing now is very specific to ChatGPT, such as how to set conditions, and we are talking about details in a very specific way. That could well change as GPT4 evolves a bit more.
Either way, the ability to ask questions will not change, as vague questions will get vague answers, and detailed questions will get detailed answers. Therefore, I think it would be better to think of it as the ability to ask questions in a deeper level, not in terms of a small, detailed skill, but rather in terms of how to demonstrate human intelligence.
Will there be a difference in the ability to give instructions or ask questions to AI and the ability to have a conversation in a real human relationship?
Sasaki: I believe that as everyone thinks about and refines the ability to ask questions to the dialogue AI, this will also affect the conversation between humans. In short, I don't think conversations between lovers will change, but even in ordinary work conversations, there are many ambiguous phrases that are difficult to understand.
I think there is a possibility that more rigorous communication will be required in this area. So you are saying that the old man's business terminology in Japan will be eradicated.
In the Showa period, passion and emotional conversational skills were required. Aristotle once wrote a book titled “The Art of Argument” and said that persuading people requires three things: pathos (emotion), logos (logic), and ethos (trust).
I think that communication in the Showa period in Japan was very pathos-oriented, but now it is being pulled toward something more logos-oriented.
Starting this year, Japanese language classes in high schools will be divided into two parts: “Literary Japanese” and “Logical Japanese. Logical Japanese is the ability to write reports and other practical texts, and until now it has not been emphasized much in Japanese classes.
It is often pointed out that the lack of such skills is one of the problems that have prevented the development of a culture of discussion in Japan.
From the Future of AI to Business Applications, I Asked Dr. Toshinao Sasaki about ChatGPT” (in Japanese)
This is a book that explains everything from the basics of ChatGPT to business efficiency techniques that can be effectively used in business in an easy-to-understand manner. This book is ideal for those who have never used ChatGPT, those who have not yet grasped how to use it well, and those who want to find further ways to utilize it. The book also provides a detailed explanation of ChatGPT from a professional point of view, including its hidden “pitfalls” and potential impact on society in the future.
Toshinao Sasaki
Toshinao Sasaki was born in Hyogo Prefecture in 1961. He is a reporter for the Mainichi Shimbun and the monthly ASCII magazine. After working as a reporter for the Mainichi Shimbun and as an editor for ASCII Monthly, he became a freelance journalist. He has published several books, including “The Age of Curation” (Chikuma Shinsho), “Layering the World” (NHK Publishing Shinsho), “Iemeshi ko is the best feast. (Magazine House), “And Life Becomes a Community” (Anonima Studio), etc. (Anonima Studio), and many other books.
Toshinao Sasaki on the Digital Generation Gap Tech and Future Vol.2
Toshinao Sasaki's “Why DX is not spreading and what's behind it” Tech and Future Vol.1
Interview Iolite FACE vol.10 David Schwartz, Hirata Roi PHOTO & INTERVIEW "Yukos" Special feature "Trends in the cryptocurrency industry in Japan", "Trump vs. Harris: What will happen to the cryptocurrency industry?", "Was the reputation economy a prophecy?" Interview: Simon Gerovich, Metaplanet Co., Ltd., Kim Dong-Gyu, CALIVERSE Series Tech and Future Sasaki Toshinao...etc.
