Has the cryptocurrency market also entered the rainy season?

My name is Yasuo Matsuda, a senior analyst at Rakuten Wallet Co., Ltd., and I will be writing a series starting with this issue. I look forward to sharing the latest developments in the cryptocurrency market.

June in Review

After failing to try to rise higher in June, the BTC market tried to reach the lower end of the range towards the end of the month. Fundamentals were relatively favorable, and the employment statistics at the beginning of the month were strong, but the CPI, which was attracting attention, fell short of expectations. Meanwhile, contrary to the expectations of FOMC members, the futures market's expectations of interest rate cuts this year rose from one to two, which was a tailwind for BTC.

In addition, capital flows into BTC spot ETFs pushed up the market. In the four weeks since May 13, $4 billion has flowed in, and on June 7, BTC is approaching its all-time high of 11.24 million yen in yen terms, which it set in May.

However, the following week, ETF flows turned negative, and the market changed drastically, and at the end of the month, Mt.GOX's announcement that it would repay $9 billion worth of BTC to creditors from the beginning of July was unpopular, and the price temporarily plummeted to the 9.3 million yen range.

Technically, after a sharp rise from February to March, it has been trading in a range of roughly 9 to 11 million yen. At the beginning of May, it tried to break out of the range, dropping to 8.8 million yen, but ended up being a false positive. In June, it rose to 11.24 million yen, but formed a double top and failed to break out of the range, and is now once again searching for the lower limit of the range.