Is Bitcoin's Price Surge Beginning? Expected to Reach $100,000 by Year-End!

October Review

Bitcoin is often known for its seasonal pattern of weak performance in August and September followed by strength in October, a phenomenon nicknamed "Uptober." However, this October began with selling pressure. Concerns over escalating conflicts in the Middle East, including Israel's ground invasion of Lebanon and Iran’s missile attacks on Israel, caused Bitcoin to dip below $60,000.

As Trump regained momentum over Harris in prediction markets, sparking a resurgence of the "If Trump" trade, Bitcoin spot ETF flows rebounded to levels seen in February and March. This helped Bitcoin approach the July high of $70,000 achieved during the earlier "Almost Trump" trade.

While many of the buyers driving Bitcoin’s record highs in March were retail investors, over 900 institutional investors managing assets exceeding $100 million have begun exploratory purchases. Industry experts had anticipated this second wave of the ETF boom to start in the latter half of this year as institutions ramp up their buying.

From August through September, uncertainty over the election outcome deterred institutional activity, causing ETF flows to stagnate. However, as October progressed and Trump extended his lead while Harris softened her stance on cryptocurrencies, ETF buying began to pick up even before the election results. If Trump wins on November 5, further inflows are expected, potentially propelling Bitcoin to significant year-end gains.

December Outlook: Supply Dynamics

Bitcoin’s current supply rate is fixed at 450 BTC per day, but it undergoes halving approximately every four years, reducing the supply by half. Historically, Bitcoin's price begins to rise one to one-and-a-half years before a halving in anticipation. However, the price tends to stagnate shortly after the halving due to profit-taking and miner sell-offs triggered by reduced earnings. Approximately six months to a year after the halving, the cumulative effect of reduced supply typically drives sustained price increases.

The most recent halving occurred in April this year, situating the market in a transitional phase from a post-halving slump to a sustained rally. Assuming a Trump victory, Bitcoin is expected to enter a significant upward phase after the November election, potentially reaching $100,000 (¥15.5 million at a ¥155/USD exchange rate) by year-end.

December Outlook: Technical Analysis

Since reaching an all-time high in March, Bitcoin has been forming a descending channel, a pattern known as a "bull flag" that often signals an impending breakout to the upside.

According to traditional technical analysis, Bitcoin initially surged from $39,000 to $59,000, a $20,000 gain, before entering this bull flag. If it breaks out of the current channel, a similar $20,000 gain from the July high of $70,000 would target a price of around $90,000 in the short term. Considering these dynamics, it would not be surprising for Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by year-end.

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