October Review
Bitcoin is often known for its seasonal pattern of weak performance in August and September followed by strength in October, a phenomenon nicknamed "Uptober." However, this October began with selling pressure. Concerns over escalating conflicts in the Middle East, including Israel's ground invasion of Lebanon and Iran’s missile attacks on Israel, caused Bitcoin to dip below $60,000.
As Trump regained momentum over Harris in prediction markets, sparking a resurgence of the "If Trump" trade, Bitcoin spot ETF flows rebounded to levels seen in February and March. This helped Bitcoin approach the July high of $70,000 achieved during the earlier "Almost Trump" trade.
While many of the buyers driving Bitcoin’s record highs in March were retail investors, over 900 institutional investors managing assets exceeding $100 million have begun exploratory purchases. Industry experts had anticipated this second wave of the ETF boom to start in the latter half of this year as institutions ramp up their buying.
From August through September, uncertainty over the election outcome deterred institutional activity, causing ETF flows to stagnate. However, as October progressed and Trump extended his lead while Harris softened her stance on cryptocurrencies, ETF buying began to pick up even before the election results. If Trump wins on November 5, further inflows are expected, potentially propelling Bitcoin to significant year-end gains.
