The four-year cycle remains unchanged, and conditions for Bitcoin to resume full-scale growth remain unchanged

Bitcoin, which successfully reached $100,000 at the end of last year, rose to $109,000 on January 20, but has been struggling at the $90,000 level for nearly a month since then.

One of the reasons for this is the postponement of the realization of the Trump administration's flagship policy, the Strategic Reserve of Bitcoin (SBR) concept.

Bitcoin reached an all-time high just before the inauguration, but the presidential order signed on the fourth day of his inauguration called for the establishment of a working group on digital assets, the formulation of a regulatory framework, and the creation of criteria to evaluate the feasibility of establishing an SBR, which caused disappointment that it would take time to realize the SBR.

Another reason is the skipping of the interest rate cut at the January FOMC. One of the triggers for Bitcoin's sudden fall in August last year and its subsequent rise was the start of interest rate cuts at the September FOMC. Interest rate cuts continued in November and December, and Bitcoin's rise took a breather when the FOMC postponed the interest rate cut on January 29.

The direct reason for the suspension of rate cuts is the recent acceleration of inflation, but FOMC members have also expressed their intention to wait and see how the administration's economic policies, centered on tariffs, play out.

This uncertainty about the future has directly led to cautious investors refraining from purchasing ETFs, weighing on the upside of the market.