Summary
1. Bitcoin in 2025: “The Peak Came as Expected, but at an Unexpectedly Weak Level”
Bitcoin marked multiple new all-time highs in 2025, but momentum faded after peaking in October, with gains falling well short of market expectations. While the four-year halving cycle functioned in terms of timing, the peak price—around ¥19 million—suggested that supply-side factors alone are no longer sufficient to drive prices sharply higher.
2. Underperformance Versus Gold Reflects Bitcoin’s Risk-Asset Nature
In 2025, gold posted strong gains while Bitcoin behaved like a risk asset, selling off during periods of heightened uncertainty. Trade war concerns and fears of an AI bubble collapse pushed capital toward safe havens such as gold, leaving Bitcoin relatively underperforming. That said, an actual collapse of the AI bubble has yet to materialize, limiting the case for long-term pessimism.
3. The End of Supply-Driven Cycles May Also Mean No “Crypto Winter”
As the supply impact of each halving diminishes, explosive rallies like those of the past are becoming less likely—but so are deep crashes and prolonged “crypto winters.” On the demand side, broader crypto adoption in the U.S., growing institutional participation via ETFs, and the entry of major financial institutions into crypto sales point to gradual improvements in supply–demand dynamics. Against this backdrop, a return to all-time highs in 2026 remains a realistic possibility.
2025 is likely to be remembered as a year in which Bitcoin (BTC) failed to rise as much as expected.
Although Bitcoin set new all-time highs multiple times—in January, July, August, and October—it lost momentum after peaking in October. Based on the historical four-year cycle driven by the halving, I had projected in this column that Bitcoin would peak between April and October 2025 at around ¥35 million. While the timing of the peak aligned with expectations, the price level—approximately ¥19 million—fell far short of that forecast.
What disappointed market participants even more was Bitcoin’s weak performance relative to other assets such as gold and U.S. equities. While gold surged more than 70% year-to-date, Bitcoin ended the year below its opening price, closing in negative territory.
