Summary
1. Bitcoin enters a bear market (“crypto winter”), but the downside may be limited
Bitcoin has fallen 53% from its all-time high of $126,000, signaling entry into a bear market. However, a crash on the scale of previous cycles (around 80%) is considered unlikely. The impact of halving cycles appears to be diminishing, and price volatility is gradually decreasing.
2. Changes in halving cycles suggest a shallower and shorter bottoming process
With price gains shrinking significantly compared to past cycles, both the magnitude and duration of declines are also expected to contract. Bitcoin may form a bottom around $50,000, or establish a double bottom near $60,000, with a likely bottoming period between spring and summer 2026.
3. Growing institutional participation to support demand and drive recovery
Major financial institutions are increasingly recommending crypto asset allocations and expanding related offerings. Retail investors continue to buy on dips, shifting the market dynamic toward demand-driven price movements. In 2026, Bitcoin may recover—entering a “spring” phase—led by demand.
Full Translation
Bitcoin (BTC) peaked at $126,000 last October and then rebounded to $80,000 in November, marking a 37% decline from the peak.
However, after failing to establish a solid base at the end of January, it broke below last year’s low of $74,000 and extended its decline to $60,000.
In equity markets, a 10% drop is typically considered a correction, while a 20% decline signals a bear market. In the more volatile Bitcoin market, however, the general rule of thumb is a 20% drop for a correction and 40% for a bear market. With the current decline reaching 53% from the peak, Bitcoin can be considered to have entered a bear market—commonly referred to as a “crypto winter.”
In past cycles, Bitcoin has experienced declines of around 80% over roughly a year from its peak. This time, however, such a deep correction is unlikely. The reason is that the impact of halving cycles has been gradually weakening.
