A series of interviews with Toshinao Sasaki on the future of technology and society.
The theme this time is mass media and the ‘future’ of newspapers and television.
--I would like to ask you about the state of the media today. In the 1960s, communications scholar Wilbur Schramm identified the roles of the mass media as ‘surveillance’, ‘debate’ and ‘teacher’.
Toshinao Sasaki: There are various ways of thinking about the role of the media, but the first is to ‘convey information’, the second is to ‘monitor power’ and the third is to ‘set the agenda’ as to what is important for society at the moment.
In terms of ‘information dissemination’, the role of the media has declined with the advent of the internet. For example, in the case of newspapers, when a disaster or conflict occurs, information is transmitted more quickly on social networking services than in morning and evening newspapers.
Television is just as fast as the internet, but in many cases the internet is the source of information. There is a divergence between public opinion on TV and newspapers and on the internet.
For example, with regard to the approval rating of the government, the approval rating in opinion polls and the approval rating on the internet are close, and the LDP government attaches importance to the approval rating on the internet and transmits information on the internet to voters without going through newspapers or television.
In this way, I think it can be said that in the area of ‘information transmission’, it is no longer necessary to have mass media, but it is now possible to complete the process on the internet.
--What do you think about ‘agenda setting’?
Sasaki: I think the internet is weak when it comes to ‘agenda-setting’. The internet is a world where information spreads without being consolidated, and where websites and SNS accounts are created without limit.
In other words, there is no finite frame of reference, so it is difficult to create a common understanding of what is important. In fact, this is why it happens that only a small part of the population on social networking sites gets excited.
On the other hand, newspapers and television transmit information within a limited frame, and the top of that frame is a guarantee of the importance of the news, or it appears important just by being published.
--What do you think about ‘power monitoring’?
SASAKI: I think that monitoring power is also difficult on the internet. The key problem with the internet today is that it is not profitable. Monitoring power and investigative journalism is very expensive to cover, with a single piece of coverage costing hundreds of thousands of yen, or even more than a million yen depending on the coverage.
In the days without the internet, the number of media was limited and supply was low in relation to demand, so TV commercials and newspaper advertisements were expensive. Therefore, TV and newspapers used to be able to afford to compensate for the high cost of research.
The internet, on the other hand, can increase the amount of information as much as possible, resulting in excessive demand. Therefore, even if you set up a web media outlet, it is difficult for it to suddenly be read by millions of people. It is true that one article may accidentally get a buzz and be read by millions of people, but it is unlikely that an article written by that reporter will be read continuously.
In other words, it is impossible to do investigative reporting on the internet because it does not receive the same advertising budget as TV and newspapers used to. However, newspapers are also entering a phase of decline, with their circulation decreasing rapidly, and I think the question of what to do about investigative journalism and power monitoring after newspapers disappear is becoming a vexed issue.
A theme that has been debated since around 2000
The ‘fusion of communications and broadcasting’ is almost complete today.
--The Internet plays a different role as a media outlet.
Sasaki: I think the Internet has taken away various roles from the media, but there are still some roles that the mass media cannot take away from the old media, so I think the issue is how to separate these roles and renew the old media.
For example, in terms of television, I think there is room for survival because there is a news division and a programming division. There are dramas like VIVANT that are not inferior to Netflix dramas, so as long as TV stations make good programmes, I think they can maintain their operations, and I think it is possible for them to make a profit and maintain the news division in this way.
--How about newspapers?
Sasaki: I think it will be difficult for newspapers. The average age of their readers is said to be in their late fifties or sixties, and in reality only the older generation reads them. Under these circumstances, Japanese newspaper publishers have found a way to make use of electronic editions, but only the Nihon Keizai Shimbun is said to have succeeded.
However, even so, it is difficult to imagine all of them disappearing, so there is a possibility of repeated consolidation and closure, like banks in the past, while it is also said that one or two newspapers may remain, It is also said that at least one or two newspapers may remain.
--Which newspapers will remain?
Sasaki: Even if the print media disappear, it is said that media with a nationwide coverage system as a web medium may survive. The Yomiuri Shimbun and Nihon Keizai Shimbun, for example. Their circulation has been declining for the past 20 years, and at the same time their readership is ageing.
The Asahi and Mainichi have become more left-leaning, while the Sankei has become more right-leaning. Looking around at this situation, I think it is a reasonable expectation that the rather neutral Yomiuri and Nihon Keizai Shimbun will survive.
Another possibility for newspapers is to change the current old way of making and selling newspapers, and to make the most of their news-gathering capabilities while converting them to a technology-driven web-based media, as Jeff Bezos did with the Washington Post about 10 years ago. I wonder if there will be any foreign participation in this process.
However, even if such a media outlet were to be established, there is no vision of how profits would be maintained, so this is only a possibility. There is certainly no small amount of expectation.
Depending on the efforts of the commercial broadcasters, TVer could replace terrestrial broadcasting.
It has the potential to grow into a media outlet that earns advertising dollars.
--What do you think of the future potential of YouTube and other video services as media?
Sasaki: YouTube is a mixed bag, so in the end, I think it has become clear that existing production companies are strong in terms of production capacity.
However, with the emergence of Netflix in the last decade or so, a situation has emerged where talented companies from the Japanese film and television production industry are entering the Netflix market, which brings in huge sums of money. Such is the case with The Naked Director and Alice in the Land of the Rising Sun.
As mentioned earlier, dramas such as VIVANT are also being produced on terrestrial television, and I think they are flat in terms of production capacity. On the other hand, if you think about the format in which such programmes are viewed - terrestrial or on-demand - I think it can be said that terrestrial is tough.
In the Corona disaster, the subscription rate to Netflix and other services has increased, and it has become commonplace to watch on-demand. On the other hand, TVer is growing in such a difficult terrestrial broadcasting environment, with more than 60 million registered users, and I believe that TVer has the potential to grow into a media outlet that can replace or complement terrestrial broadcasting in terms of advertising sales, depending on the efforts of commercial broadcasters.
‘Power is always evil’, ‘the common sense is always right’, ‘the weak should be protected’, ‘artificial things are dangerous’, ‘naturally occurring things are the best’... These are old-fashioned values that continue to sit in Japanese society. The latest essay dismantles the ‘myths’ that run counter to the evolution of cutting-edge technology and serves as a guidepost for thinking about the future.
Born 1961 in Hyogo Prefecture. Born in Hyogo Prefecture in 1961, he left Waseda University's School of Political Science and Economics after graduating from the same year. After working as a reporter for the Mainichi Shimbun and as an editor for the monthly ASCII magazine, he became a freelance journalist. He has published several books, including The Age of Curation (Chikuma Shinsho), Layering the World (NHK Publishing Shinsho), Iemeshi ko is the best feast. (Magazine House), And, Life Becomes a Community (Anonima Studio), etc. (Anonima Studio) and many other books.