Bitcoin Sees Turbulent Swings Despite FOMC Rate Cut — Policymaking Remains Deeply Challenging

Bitcoin (BTC) briefly surged above $94,000 (approx. ¥14.65 million) on the 11th before losing momentum and retreating. At the time of writing, the price is fluctuating around $90,000 (approx. ¥14 million) as the cryptocurrency market searches for its next major catalyst.

The highly anticipated FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting resulted in a 0.25% rate cut, in line with market expectations. Bitcoin initially climbed after Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the slowdown in employment growth.
However, the price later declined as Powell emphasized a cautious stance toward future rate cuts due to persistently high inflation. The fact that the rate cut matched predictions triggered a classic “sell-the-news” reaction, accelerating Bitcoin’s decline.

Powell also reiterated that monetary policy is “not on a pre-set path”, warning that decisions will be made meeting by meeting, based on a careful assessment of labor market trends and inflation pressures.

The FOMC meeting revealed deepening divisions within the committee regarding the rate cut decision.
While 9 members supported the 0.25% cut, 3 members opposed it:

• Governor Michelle Bowman (Miran?) advocated for a larger 0.50% rate cut,
• Presidents Schmid and Goolsbee argued for holding rates steady.

Bowman, who joined the Fed Board in September, is widely viewed as reflecting the preferences of President Trump, who has pushed strongly for additional monetary easing.

Moreover, the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections showed that 6 of the 19 participants favored keeping rates unchanged at this meeting, and 7 members do not foresee any rate cuts in 2026.
This underscores the hawkish tone of the latest FOMC meeting.

Looking ahead, projections show one 0.25% rate cut in both 2026 and 2027, but the widening disagreements within the committee suggest that navigating the policy path will become increasingly difficult.

Attention is now turning to the selection of Powell’s successor, as his term is set to expire in May 2026.
Reports indicate that President Trump is accelerating efforts to conduct final interviews for potential nominees. The next chair is expected to face strong pressure from Trump to implement immediate rate cuts, raising the likelihood that a pro-stimulus candidate aligned with his views will be chosen.

However, even with a dovish chair, many analysts believe immediate rate cuts will still face resistance from other committee members, leaving the outlook for U.S. monetary policy highly uncertain.

Image: Shutterstock

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