[NEWS] PolyMarket Trump's chances of victory hit record high in battleground state

Polymarket Predicts a 53.8% Chance of Donald Trump Defeating Kamala Harris in Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania.

Blockchain-based prediction market platform Polymarket has recorded its highest prediction yet, indicating a 53.8% chance of former President Donald Trump defeating Vice President Kamala Harris in the crucial battleground state of Pennsylvania.

This figure is significant, especially since Harris had been leading Trump in terms of the probability of winning the presidential election when she announced her candidacy in August.

For the past few weeks, both candidates had been neck-and-neck on Polymarket, an Ethereum-based platform where users can trade predictions on election outcomes. However, on October 4, Trump once again overtook Harris. In another market, Harris was predicted to win 72% of the total votes, leading many to watch Polymarket's results closely.

Polymarket is partly funded by Peter Thiel, a Trump supporter and investor. The reason for discrepancies between various platforms regarding related numbers remains unclear.

Trump's current figures are the highest since President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the race on July 21, passing the candidacy to Harris.

At present, Harris maintains a slight lead in two other important battleground states. In Michigan, she leads Trump 53% to 48%, and in Wisconsin, she holds a 52% to 49% advantage.

Polling in Pennsylvania has remained relatively stable over the past few days, with most surveys showing a tight race. According to an average of recent polls compiled by political platform FiveThirtyEight (538), Harris currently holds a 0.6% lead in the latest results.

Pennsylvania is one of the seven battleground states expected to determine the outcome of this year’s election. In 2020, President Biden won the state against Trump, while Trump defeated former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the state to win the 2016 presidential election.

Of the other six states, as of the latest polling averages on October 7, Harris was leading Trump by narrow margins in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. Meanwhile, Trump held slight leads in Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona.

Trump's Quick Response to Disaster May Be a Factor

Polymarket currently indicates that Trump’s odds of defeating Vice President Harris have surpassed Harris’ chances of winning.

One possible factor in this shift was Trump’s swift response to Hurricane Helene, which hit the southern battleground state of Georgia. Trump was among the first to arrive and provide aid to victims of the disaster.

President Biden and Vice President Harris visited the disaster zone a few days later, and reports surfaced that Biden was asleep during the hurricane's impact. This has drawn criticism.

The upcoming November presidential election is a major focus, not only for the U.S. economy but also for the cryptocurrency market.

Reference: The Block
Image: Shutterstock

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