[NEWS] US presidential election nears, potential impact on cryptocurrency market

On the evening of the 5th, Japan time, voting for the US presidential election will begin in each state. It is looking like a one-on-one race between Republican candidate former President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris, with the approval ratings being close.

According to the latest poll by political analysis site RealClearPolitics, Trump's approval rating is 48.6%, while Harris's approval rating is 48.7%, giving Harris a slight lead. On the other hand, there is a strong view that Trump has an advantage in terms of electoral votes, but the situation is extremely unclear.

In addition, the prediction market PolyMarket has Trump at 60.5% and Harris at 39.5%, further strengthening the view that Trump will win.

The trend of the US presidential election is also affecting the stock market. The Nikkei average closed at 38,474.90 yen, up 421.23 yen (1.11%) from the previous week's close, on the view that Trump's victory would strengthen the upward trend in stock prices.

Such so-called "Trump trades" have been seen in the cryptocurrency (virtual currency) market in the past, but at the time of writing no major price fluctuations have been seen in major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC).

For the cryptocurrency industry, the victory of Trump, who advocates the promotion of Bitcoin, is seen as a positive thing. Trump has stated that he will ease regulations on cryptocurrencies, and has indicated his intention to immediately dismiss SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) Chairman Gary Gensler after taking office as president.

On the other hand, if Harris is elected, it is likely that Chairman Gensler will be appointed Secretary of the Treasury. Although Harris has shown a positive attitude toward innovation in the digital field, she has not made any specific statements regarding cryptocurrencies, so it cannot be denied that her election may be viewed negatively.

Taking into account the policies of both candidates, the results of the US presidential election may cause a sudden increase in volatility in the cryptocurrency market. In addition, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) will be held on the 6th and 7th, so there is a risk of sudden price fluctuations even after the presidential election.

The outcome of this close race in the history of US presidential elections is expected to be known around noon on the 6th, Japan time.

Reference: RealClearPolitics , PolyMarket
Image: Shutterstock

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